美股轰轰烈烈，DOW每天上下200点现在眼睛都不眨一下。Day Trader倒是生在一个好时候了。

再热闹，金融世界的基本面没有变，还是那句话：It's an accident waiting to happen.任何一条小道消息，数据报告都会把正在进行的‘牛市’给交代了，Credit Card, Insurance,ABS, CDS etc。

Comercial paper市场好了一下，但都是Treasure在买，Libor降了些，也都是通过国家的Currency Swap,或政府的空投钞票。所谓的“Investors”还没出现。

个人感觉Short的Timing就要出现了。毕竟，Earning can't keep up with Dow Index.

 

中国和俄罗斯的石油交易大快人心，但石油管道明年才开始：和老毛子打交道心里总是不踏实；

 

中国终于加入了泛美银行家俱乐部，通往南美的大门终于被打开了。这是一块high yield的业务地带，不知道中国做了什么承诺，也许和今天说的“将量力帮助国际社会”有关。但值。看外交部发言人的讲话，言语中居然有些傲慢，很欣慰；

 

IMF向中国要钱了，好机会。国际货币组织从来是欧美大国操控的。他们的钱都是有附带条件了。想当然，中国会表现‘负责人大国’的气度，给IMF提供钱，从而作为第三世界的代表参与(不是旁听）IMF，这对日后成立大东亚+俄罗斯的世界货币第三极会有无可估量的效果。大东亚是世界经济的主要生产地区，通过拥有自己的货币来形成自己的货物定价权意义极端重要，功在当代，福泽万载绝不是夸张。只是到时给IMF钱的时候，不知政府的母亲在网上要被网民们侮辱多少会。。；

 

世界原本有两个火车头，中国制造，美国消费。现在消费出问题了，制造会有很大麻烦。对中国来说扩大内需已经时不我待。原来预期土地改革怎么也得搞个2，3年，这一会儿就通过了，仓促总会出问题，中国的农民却承担不起一点失误。需要政府决策灵活，反应敏捷。对于中国这样的一个大国来说，很困难。Praying..反腐败新闻现在天天有，‘倒霉’的官员级别也越来越高。经济不景气，尤其是土改这个关口，民心就变得尤为重要了；

 

同样是内需，国内要投资2万亿修建铁路，有些已经动工了。这两天总想朋友推荐国内水泥股，过一段时间钢铁也该上了，但现在还不是时候，不过呢，没准明天天亮就是时候了，因为现在中国是白天，澳大利亚也是白天。。

 

说说澳大利亚吧。澳元对美元从7月的1：0.9x跌倒了现在的1：0.6x，现在所有的basic material,当然包括矿石是一塌糊涂的便宜。总理陆克文公开恳请中国采购澳洲。Now this is where it gets interesting--中国宣布投资铁路的Timing，Why NOW!?我的一个猜测是，澳大利亚还没有投降，中国在喊：爬出来吧，我给你自由。也就在今天，陆克文说中国09年经济会告诉发展。

 

下面是我的分析。

 

7，8月的时候，澳洲铁矿对中国集体提价，要了天价，然后转手和欧洲签了更便宜的合同。中国钢铁行业咬牙切齿。不久，澳元开始暴跌。大概是巧合吧；）

这一次中国怎么会善罢甘休？澳大利亚是能源经济，资金密集型。金融市场开放，leverage高，全国负债高，实体经济不大。这就留给别人太多的bull eye去攻击。3个月跌成这个样子不值得同情，也应该。如果想让澳元崩盘，对中国来说易如反掌。命悬一线的人总是更着急的，也没有什么筹码可言。

我的判断是，中国在给隧道里的澳大利亚打手电筒，闪一闪。在告诉陆克文，沿着手电筒走，你就可以出来了，赶紧，因为你不知道隧道另一头的火车什么时候会开过来。。

我们的条件：现价入股澳洲铁矿，或和俄罗斯一样签订长期低价铁矿合同。从现在的情况下来看，中国应该是要一个ridiculous的价钱。谁让你脑袋在我的板子上呢。

 

关于投资

陆克文今天喊话说明他还没想通；）想要稳住外国投资者。哪里有那么容易！这不在全世界都降息，澳元决定不降息的情况下今天澳元对美元又跌了1%。。但我觉得澳元已经到底了，因为，真的挺不住了。一旦美国金融市场一点波动。。。这个时候如果用50：1的leverage购入澳元，或通过aud-usd,usd-jpy，到年底很有可能会有非常高的回报。

另外，11.3-11.7大陆代表团访问台湾，其中包括10个大陆的bankers. 如果明天大盘跌，建议买入台湾指数（ewt),我呢，会买11月的call;)

 

上个礼拜写的分析和建议，相信一定惊动了党中央--几乎都在非常nicely的develop;)

 

小胡办事，我放心！

When I got into the office this morning, I was told Asian markets dropped 10% in one trading session.

 

This happens right before the 10+3 summit.

 

A little background here.

 

10 Southeast small Asia countries and China, Japan and Korea are planning on this monetary system where they are going have to have their own international trading system. Among those, Japan is the biggest cheerleader.

 

According to the plan, 3 will put up a huge USD reservoir to support the system. Under the new system small countries will be well protected, while free trades will be enjoyed by all countries within. This will certainly lay the foundation for any possible new Big Asia currency.

 

On the same note, China had the agreement with 10, that from 2012 between parties international trades will carry 0% or very low taxation. It apparently had speeded up. Yesterday China and Singapore agreed starting from 2009, there will be zero taxation on trades between two parties, and Singapore is part of 10, where they can trade freely within the 10. So practically the accord yesterday reset the  clock to 2009, instead of 2012.

 

Now, confidence is essential here. If anything is wrong with the big 3, doubts rise, and confidence diminishes.  Then you had this stock landslide last night and I'm sure you'll see more movement on the FX front. Not to hard to figure out who is behind this—it has to be someone that is against the new system, and has the power or ability to do so.

 

Quite smart is it? You wanna grow a little muscle? I’ll take you out of the game first. Boom, home run, game over!

 

Not so fast my friend.

 

In today’s market, nobody trusts nobody, you push ppl’s back into the wall, leaving these ppl no choice but leaning towards China.

 

Regardless, China gains much soft power in this event.

 

Now, back to the US market. Asian markets will have no substantial effect on Dow whatsoever.  You will see investors panic, but big players have a plan, as they know what is going on. Low volume on Dow is the proof.

To those that are doing long term investment:

Be aware! according to the latest BIS report, currently total derivative values are roughly 12 X global production, which means, when financial squeezed, stock clapse has no end.

this market is one credit event away from being halved again.
Remeber Lehman going under destroyed the whole European financial system.

When to bottom shopping?

Forget about the triangles, the market has nothing to do with tech but fundamental structure. the market bottoms when big banks all nationalized.
Good luck

首先，美元崩溃不符合中国利益。

 

正在进行时（带建议）：

 

在美国最困难的时候联合日本（对日本也有好处）买美国的实业和地产，稳定美元，趁现在大家都拉拢中国，美元走强， 然后
：
1 签长期石油合同；
2 买俄罗斯的石油，买欧洲机床，军事技术；
3 买澳洲矿产；
4 买阿根廷国债（据便宜），买畜牧业；

让自己立于不败之地。

但在出手购买美国以前，必须

挟持美国大银行国有化；

接禁高科技出口（保证贸易顺逆平衡，从而稳定美国赤字，同时获得技术，提升中国产业链）；

逼迫立法deleveraging (降低杠杆？不知道中文怎么说），以确保没有第二个华尔街 （虽然那样俺也要失业了）。

 

要达到这些目的，中国必须联合日本，暗中分离欧美，通过操作让美股再跌，企业贷款更难，危及经济基本面，使美国被迫接受中美战略伙伴关系。（老江一厢情愿，不为认可的愿望终究通过华尔街的游戏规则实现）。

 

联合日本可以实现抬高美元，美国债增值的目的，符合短期两国利益，何乐而不为。这样就不难解时为什么中国愿意和日本达成貌似自己吃亏的东海协议了。

 

 

全国为上，破国次之；

是故智者之虑，必杂于利害，杂于利而务可信也，杂于害而患可解也。

 

这一次，中国大胜！！

Just want to give a shoutout to my good friendTJ, that I'm happy for you that hard work paid off, and I'm so glad I can finally start to pronounce you Dr. TJ!

 

Now new life just started, and it's not getting easier, dont ever give up, and you'll be fine. Whatever you do, do your best and  whatever path you choose, dont look back.

Every achievement you will have, is a plus, anything you coudnt achieve, is not a minus, coz you have never had them.

 

So go get them!

 

Best wishes and now you're all on your own from here;)

 

 

If you're one of millions worrying about your 401K, wondering how many extra years you'll have to work before retiring to your lake house and deluxe RV, ladies and gentlmen, hold that thought for another month or two with me, because you MIGHT be in a time of shock & awe.
If you made fortune betting on USC losing to OSU, or if your fist name is Les, with last name Miles, who's been performing at a unimaginably dumb level on the job, but had been anamored with ridiculous luck, guys, I want to be you. Coz you are one of those few that have either the insight, creativity, guts or simply dumb luck to foresee and actually truely believe this one's coming: The Fall of USD.

 

What's on the stake.

 

World USD demonimated financial system;
Crude Oil Pricing system;
Other Basic Materials Pricing System;
Domestic Inflation;
Jobs;
Retirement;
As a matter of fact, just add anything you can think of to the list. (Research shows sexual life can be greatly affected by broad econ caused anxiety;), so we just about get everything covered up)

 

What is going on

 

G7 summit in Washington. When I walk out of my apt Monday morning and pick up the new issued Financial Times on the ground at the gate, where newspapers boys always drop them, the first thing I'd be looking for is not G7 summit, but 3M Libor spreads. Any politic/econ savy can tell you, summit dont matter. The written is on the wall. All parties suggested they would not buy any new issued govt bonds, which will be much needed for US to buy banks' corrupted debts, which explains why Treasure hasn't started to do so, one week after House approved the bill.

 

What to watch

 

Any news on Europe-Russia-China-Parkistan-Japan-Iran-Isreal. Politic deals will have to be stroke before financial ones.

 

What are the Choices

 

US: To Melt or To collapse;
Rest of the world: Give in or Give up. Everybody has to give in, sizable loss is inevitable, but yet, the matter is the size of the loss, if you catch the drift here. The first to give up will take less hit, but the world will be back to where it has been, when all the dust settles, US bulling the world with the greenbacks only they can print. Remind you of the prisoners' delima? Ever wondering why Wall Street quiz you the brainteaser so much?

 

This is the turmoil, nasty and manhood challenge dawn in the jungle. But be thankful that you can still sit on your couch, flip up the remote, enjoying the great college football weeken, with a laptop on your lap checking out scores around the country. At least you're not in under that neck-breaking,ball-squeezing pile, where the big boys have to sleep on.

Hopefully, the WORLD will come up on top out of the pile when the sun comes up.

Getting married this weekend. Any advice from any of you successfully married? gee and haw 2008-10-08 11:12:53

• 
  Best advice I can give you..... T-Town Tider 2008-10-08 11:48:26
  is that love is work. When she (and you too) are not "lovable", you still have to love her. You have to love her when she doesn't love you. You have to love her when you are at your worst. You have to love her when she's at her worst. Right now you probably can't imagine her being "at her worst." You'll get over that and that's when you still have to love her. As the Bible says, you have to "love your wife as Christ loved the Church and gave Himself for her."
  It's all impossibly hard but incredibly enriching. Besides, studies show you'll live longer if you're married. (G)
• 
  Easiest decision I ever made, I waaayyy outkicked my coverage. secret police 2008-10-08 11:48:05
• 
  lots of sex and you will make it, make sure the girl you marry does not become Crimson Lion 2008-10-08 11:47:18
  someone else that you dated. In other words sometimes people change when they get married and you would have never dated that person in the first place. I see this a lot with other couples and they all seem not to be too happy.
• 
  If your girlfriend "really loved you" she would marry somebody else! Vger 2008-10-08 11:35:21
• 
  Married for 33+ years now. A bit of advice from my uncle..... okietide 2008-10-08 11:35:10
  "Never go to sleep mad at each other." For several years my wife and I lived by this rule but eventually that changed.
  There has been a lot of temptation in my life to be unfaithful. Something, probably the Good Lord, helped me stay the straight line.
  My best advice would be to find a good church you both can agree on. Go every week or at least as much as you can. Go to Sunday school, study the Bible and pray about all your decisions.
  My wife and I will not make a significant financial decision without talking it over. Money arguments will kill your marriage faster than a beautiful woman tempting you.
  When you have children, they will change your relationship. You will become second fiddle to your children but that is only natural with women; all of them do that no matter what they tell you before the little ones come. Children are a blessing and a curse. There is no such thing as a perfect one and I can attest to that personally. But, I love my 3 girls and they have brought a lot of joy to my wife and I. I think about them each day though one is in Germany, another in Okie City and my last one who just went to Okie State. They have all turned out to be good people but a ton of time was spent with them in school/activities, church and helping them pick the right kind of friends. Your children will emulate everything you do. If you drink and party, cuss and what not, they will mirror what you do. Telling them not to do what you do is a farce. I've seen too much of it first hand and had my daughters tell me the same.
  I'm not a perfect husband or father but none of my 4 girls want to get rid of me. You will not be perfect as a husband or father but it's more about working at the relationships each day and trying to be the best you can. Do not expect perfection from you wife or children. If you try to be the best you can and stay away from the distractions, you will do ok.
  By the way, the grass is not greener on the other side of the fence. I've talked to many men and women who said they could have been as happy with a person they divorced simply because they did not work hard enough. There are exceptions and sometimes people just pick the wrong mate.
  Congratulations and good luck! I wish you both to be together till you part this life!
  Roll Tide Roll!!!
• 
  Similar advice from my parents. Also: It takes a good marriage to beat no SlimTim 2008-10-08 11:56:30
  marriage. Point being that it is a move that one should undertake only after great consideration.
  The "never let the sun go down on an argument" thing was also something we stuck with but don't necessarily follow to the last degree. We've just discovered, after more than 15 years, that there are a few things that we will come across that we disagree about and every now and then there really isn't a lot of point in beating it to death.
  Get a good look at her at her worst, with a snotty nose and crappy hair, no makeup, in a terrible mood. Resolve that you will love her just as much like that. They do fart once they are married, and it doesn't smell like roses.
  If there is something significant that you are thinking you will change about her once you are married, stop in your tracks right now.
  That thing about opposites attracting can be bunk. What is an interesting difference or charming quirk right now might just become a major pain in the rear after seven or ten years. That is not to say marry a mirror image of yourself with breasts, but there are certain core issues which you need to agree on. Your concepts of God is one of those and a major one.
  Decide who will be the money manager now, and make it the one with the highest sense of responsibility (often the one who was the oldest child, if it applies).
  Stay away from situations where you are exposed to the opportunity to be unfaithful. Don't discuss your marriage with the opposite sex and be careful about what you share with others. Don't spend any more time alone than you have to with members of the opposite sex to whom you might otherwise be attracted. Never, ever criticize her in front of anybody else. If you have a problem with her, discuss it with her in private. Never personalize a disagreement; attack the disagreement, not the spouse.
  When you have kids, present a united front at all times. Kids are smart and will attempt to find a crack in the wall they can use to their advantage.
  Just a few others. Best of luck, friend.
• 
  marriage is a wonderful institution Tider32 2008-10-08 11:34:43
  and everyone belongs in an institution...
• 
  get used to ** CHANGE ** that you can believe in (g) Platypus 2008-10-08 11:34:28
• 
  God first, wife second, kids third then figure out the rest (25 years & 4 kids) BamaontheLake 2008-10-08 11:33:07
• 
  "Yes Dear ." Fossil 2008-10-08 11:32:36
• 
  You still have time to backout. bamadan72 2008-10-08 11:32:18
• 
  Pray your brain keeps releasing the same chemicals, that's driving you.. raptor 2008-10-08 11:30:50
  to do this. (g)
• 
  Burn the big box o' porn and start DVRing Dr. Phil.... Guthrie 2008-10-08 11:30:21
  A few well-timed blurbs that might have come from a sensitive, caring man can go a helluva long way.
  Guth
• 
  Glad you said "successfully married" instead of "happily married". (G) JasH 2008-10-08 11:29:10
  Otherwise, you probably would have gotten no responses.
  It's easy to get married. Quite a few here have probably done it successfully multiple times. (G)
• 
  I've been married 25yrs. Seriously, if she isn't someone you want to just bum(m Bamatlanta 2008-10-08 11:28:48
  around with, and if she doesn't like most stuff you like---run like he11.
  I can't stress this enough: The romantic love stuff wears off pretty quick. This has to be a person you want to hang around just because she is fun to hang around with.
• 
  Make a committment to not giving up, no matter what and... 5genstide 2008-10-08 11:27:13
  Learn that your job is to take her where she wants to go and then pay for it.
  And I think the most important this is to keep your joint faith in God at the center of the marriage.
• 
  it's never too late to turn & run...til the preacher says 'i now pronounce you.. CrimsonInAuburn CIA 2008-10-08 11:27:08
• 
  marry a good person and hold up your end of the bargain letsroll 2008-10-08 11:26:30
• 
  Sure...learn the following words... Fake Steve Jobs 2008-10-08 11:26:23
  "Honey, I was wrong. I am so sorry."
  Or you could try this alternate version....
  "Shut your mouth and get me a beer."
• 
  You're right, I'm wrong, I'm sorry. ScottO. 2008-10-08 11:25:20
• 
  nope Goose 2008-10-08 11:23:46
• 
  always remember there are going to be good and bad days BamaZeus 2008-10-08 11:23:37
  and not to have a long memory of the bad days. Believe it or not, some nights it's better to just stay out of her way and go play on the computer all night
• 
  Keep some cash for yourself...they'll get enough believe me. Be honest and furlong 2008-10-08 11:23:27
  realize she is a child of God just as you are...remember this and you'll be fine.
• 
  When you come in late drunk, just tell her you've been chasing hookers. Breaks skillet 2008-10-08 11:22:48
  the ice every time.
• 
  Never get in a hurry and, confuse Vasoline - with - Airplane glue. ThreeandoutD 2008-10-08 11:22:36
• 
  You cannot put a price on a happy wife. If mama aint happy no one is - Oguard 2008-10-08 11:21:44
• 
  A few hints................. cokeandgoldenflake 2008-10-08 11:20:39
  1) be flexible....marriage is a compromise of give and take 2)buy life insurance soon as possible; it's cheaper when you're younger 3) buy a house soon as possible (if you don't have one already)...they will only go up in price and interest rates 4) always put aside a little extra $$ for a rainy day.....
• 
  A man celebrating 50 years of marriage told me after I asked him what...... Threads1 2008-10-08 11:20:30
  his secret to 50 years of marriage. He said " 3 phrases...."Yes mam, No mam and anything you say mam."
• 
  Run my friend, RUN! BINGO-THATWASAGOODY 2008-10-08 11:19:59
  Both of you, put your spouse's feelings above all others (m) RD's 2008-10-08 11:19:51
  from happily married 49 and one half years!
• 
  Practice give and take and it will last > sprinklebama 2008-10-08 11:19:27
  you give and she takes, aight
• 
  Learn to say yes maam and no maam and know when to say which one. Excel60 2008-10-08 11:19:19
  If those are not appropriate, then just keep your mouth shut. Never argues with a lady because she controls the two most important things in life, money and you know the other one. Good luck and Roll Tide.
• 
  Realize it is a commitment for life. Set-Shot 2008-10-08 11:17:16
  There will be good times and not-so-good times. Don't give up at the first hint of trouble like many do these days.
• 
  Keep your promises................ October Project 2008-10-08 11:16:57
  and expect to work at it every day.
  So many people get married thinking in the back of their minds that "it's only for as long as I want it to be". Success takes two people committed to making it work.
• 
  Don't tell any of your other girlfriends. CrimsonJim 2008-10-08 11:16:45
• 
  Don't do it PoorMe 2008-10-08 11:15:41
• 
  Start Drinking... destintide 2008-10-08 11:15:16
• 
  Why? You tired of having sex? (g) *** ehillbama 2008-10-08 11:15:05
• 
  Don't let her work. Make her stay at home and cook and clean. Bobby Flay 2008-10-08 11:14:25
• 
  Just knock it out. Everything else will take care of itself. Jalapeno 2008-10-08 11:13:27

• Sept,7th, 2008  Brazil,Argentina drop U.S. dollar for bilateral trade;
• Sept,15th,2008  US to sell Israel 1000 Bunker-buster bombs;
• Sept,30th,2008  National Debt busts the $10 trillion barrier;
• Oct,3rd,2008     Unemployment rate scores 6.1%;
• Oct,3rd,2008     House passes $700B bail out bill;
• Oct,4th,2008     Washington to sell $6.4B in weapons to Taiwan;
• Oct,4th,2008     House approves nuclear pact with India;